This is the original 1611th issue of the vernacular blockchain
Author | Five Fireball Leaders
Produced | Vernacular Blockchain (ID: helloBTC)
When it comes to the concept of blockchain investment, everyone may be able to say a set of theories. If it is not the K-line or the contract flow, then the four words “value investment” is familiar to everyone. Value investing is the most important thing. , or what is the way to maximize profits?
Of course, it is the operation method of “laying out the layout in advance before others understand it, and leaving the stage when everyone else understands it”!
But here’s the problem — “layout ahead of time” is just too hard.
In addition to being able to see it, you have to endure it, otherwise, you see how many bigwigs have laid out BTC in advance, leading many people for years, but many people left in the middle, and many did make a lot of money, but at a glance Looking at the amount of BTC N years ago, and looking at the current amount, according to the token standard, it lost a lot.
This article will talk about a few pits that have appeared in the past few years. Those Investment channels
that many players with a keen sense of smell think are going to become popular, but have never caught fire. Let’s take a look at the dawn that may appear this year.
01 Decentralized Derivatives
Derivatives may be one of the Investment channel that many were particularly bullish on last year.
The reason is not difficult to understand. We have Uniswap on the spot, and there are many Dex such as Curve, Pancakeswap, etc. The proportion of Dex data relative to Cex is constantly rising. Many old players have completely gotten rid of the dependence on Cex and become only Degen (The Fallen) living on the Dex.
Then we naturally deduce the next outlet — decentralized derivatives.
Coupled with the launch of DYDX, the popularity of trading and mining, and the soaring DYDX token price and market value, everything looks so good.
But it just looks.
In the past few months, whether it is the leading DYDX, the second Perp, and the third Mcdex, the token prices have plummeted, but only GMX has thrived, with steady rises and slow declines.
Most of the friends who do contract trading are still playing in mainstream CEX places. To put it bluntly, you think the only DYDX that can be played, if the rewards are canceled, how much real trading volume will there be on it?
The reason is as follows:
Although in a mature trading market, the transaction volume of derivatives is much larger than that of the spot, the current market itself is still nascent, and it is still very early to mature, and players who play derivatives are still a minority compared to spot players;
The current decentralized derivatives cannot provide the experience provided by centralized derivatives, which may be the most deadly.
In other words, the current Dex derivatives are more like simply moving derivatives from Cex to the chain.
You must know that the rise of Uniswap is not because of a better trading experience than Cex, but AMM, LP, liquidity mining, and no threshold to list the innovations of FCrypto Native that are not on Cex at all. Derivatives, at least so far, there has not been such a large-scale innovation relative to Cex.
In 2022, there are several directions to see some hope, all of which are exclusive to DEX, the kind that is unlikely to be realized on CEX:
Open’s Squeeze makes options in the form of power + perpetuity;
GMX is a shared liquidity model where LP and all players play against each other;
Dopex, a derivative that can bet on the outcome of Curve War, is exclusive to Dex;
For projects that provide services for NFT liquidity and pricing mechanisms, they can be classified as “NFT derivatives”, and the ones I have seen so far are NFTX+FloorDAO, Jpegd, Abacus, Fractional. art and so on.
The projects mentioned above are very innovative and will not be expanded one by one due to space limitations. Interested friends can search for their information to ensure that you will not be disappointed.
02 privacy
Privacy is a Investment channel that I don’t know how many years it has been mentioned. It always feels hopeful, but it is also always disappointing.
This can even be traced back to Zcash in ancient times. In the beginning, the price of BTC was thousands of dollars. If you pull the K-line of Zcash/BTC to the maximum, you can see that this is an eternal downward curve.
Let’s look at the MimbleWimble duo, Grin, and Beam that emerged in the past few years, and now they are in a downfall, and the new generation of privacy representatives is undoubtedly Torn based on ETH, and then you open the Torn/ETH kline It is the same blindness.
So what’s wrong with privacy? In the end, we don’t need it? Or is there another reason?
There are also two reasons for this feeling:
Temporarily, at least for most users, it isn’t needed. If you don’t believe me, ask the people around you. How many people have used Torn or Zcash (not mining, but using it to use it)? For the time being, I can’t think of anyone who insists on it except for a few giant whales or hackers. Use these privacy tokens or private transactions.
I remember V God mentioned before that privacy should be a function, not a token or a chain. We should make it an option that users can open in the future public chain or Defi project, instead of privacy for privacy, send a token separately and make a chain. At least for now, the need for such strong privacy cannot be seen on a large scale.
However, that is to say, the privacy channel is still crowded, just count, do the chain, do the Dapp, dozens of scattered projects are doing privacy, some financing and valuation are still in the sky, behind the scenes There are big capitals. Maybe I don’t know enough. I really can’t think of the picture of using these privacy tokens/chains/Dapps by myself.
In my opinion, the most important thing for privacy should be the appearance of a Link or Graph.
It is a middleware that is insensitive to users, and each chain or other project party can choose to access or cooperate.
At that time, in many applications or public chains, we may be able to add a “privacy” option or switch. However, this thing seems to be much more difficult to implement than oracles. A privacy middleware that adapts to all chains, I feel that it is not something that can be seen in the past two years.
At present, there are two main technical directions for privacy:
TEE, represented by Secret Network and Oasis;
ZKP stands for Torn and Aztec.
As for the non-smart contract-type pure privacy tokens such as Monero’s ring signature, Dash’s mixed currency, and Grin’s Mimblewimble, no one cares.
03 Socialfi+DAO
These two are put together because they are essentially related to the relationship between people in the Web3 era, one is social and the other is cooperation.
They have also been shouting fiercely in the past two years, but the channel is full of chicken feathers.
One claims to revolutionize the social media of Web2, but now the most popular in the circle is Twitter; another claims to revolutionize the life of the company, as a result, more and more VCs and companies have entered the web3, and few DAOs are powerful. The two most famous ones, one is a gold mining union like YGG, and the other is BitDAO, which is a shell of a centralized organization like Byebit, but PeopleDao and CityDAO are eye-catching because they bought the constitution and land. Unfortunately, one auction failed. Temporarily reduced to Meme currency, another expansion in the real world seems to be struggling. As for Aragon, which was known as the first coin of DAO, you can roughly guess what the situation of DAO is based on its currency price performance in the past two years.
Socialfi and DAO have always praised that they are not doing well. Perhaps the most core factor is one. These two Investment channels
trare currently not making money. You see, whether it’s Defi, Gamefi, etc., everyone intends to make money, and on your channel, there is no oil or water.
But in the final analysis, these two are still quite promising to a certain extent in 2022.
On the Socialfi side, projects such as Project Galaxy, Cyber Connect, RSS3, etc., have begun to focus on the social graph depicting users’ on-chain portraits and on-chain behavior. Although it is still very simple, it feels that it is finally correct for Crypto Native. The route, rather than the previous “do a decentralized version of Twitter or WeChat” is this kind of imitation.
The Lens Protocol endorsed by AAVE feels that it has a very close connection with Defi, and even begins to lay the foundation for future unsecured credit loans on the chain.
DAO has made a lot of progress in 2021. At present, there are agreement DAOs, service DAOs, collection DAOs, investment DAOs, gift DAOs, media DAOs, game union DAOs, and each DAO category has relatively good Leading players, earning money or not, the number and number of DAOs are indeed steadily increasing, and this is a good start! That said, we have to eat one bite at a time, and we have to go step by step. To revolutionize Web2 and the corporate system, we have to make a plan for a long-term battle and take ten years as a unit.
Any there any other Investment channel that you think are going to be popular in the past two years, but are not popular?
